MLB DFS: Cardinals, Braves Top Optimal Stacks for Tuesday
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STACK IT UP
Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.
Team stacks with the highest optimal probabilities: Cardinals, Braves
The St. Louis Cardinals are looking to be the top optimal stack for tonight’s slate for their matchup against Ryan Feltner and the Colorado Rockies in Coors Field. The Cardinals have been playing excellent baseball lately as they look to stay competitive at the top of their divisional standings and in the Wild Card seeding. Over the past two weeks, they have ranked in the top five in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ while striking out at a sub-20% clip. They are coming in confident as they have won seven straight, including most recently a sweep of the New York Yankees.
Feltner doesn’t offer much opposition. His expected ERA is at a brutal 5.60, and he doesn’t have any real strikeout potential. Feltner won’t pitch too deep into this one, and then we’ll be left with the bullpen that has the second worst bullpen ERA in baseball. The Cardinals are the top stack on our optimal board by a substantial margin and are expected to see roughly 20% as a team stack while being reasonably affordable. Backing the public is always undesirable, but Feltner isn’t good, and the Cardinals are surging right now, and this game is being played in the best-hitting ballpark. Having some Cardinals exposure in your lineups feels like a must, but how much is left up to you.
The Atlanta Braves join the Cardinals near the top of the team stack optimal board as they’ll be facing off against Rich Hill and the Boston Red Sox. The Braves have featured one of baseball’s best offenses all season and are coming into tonight looking to make a statement after they dropped four of five to the Mets in a pivotal series for the playoff chase. Atlanta still has ranked in the top eight in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ over the past two weeks, which has been where they consistently have been all year.
Hill is essentially collecting a paycheck at this point in his career as a back-of-the-rotation arm for a non-playoff team. His expected ERA and FIP hover around 4.50, but he doesn’t strike out many with an 18.8% rate. He limits power fairly decent given his ERA and FIP, but overall is not much of a threat against a dominant offense like the Braves. The Braves’ stack looks to be underpriced with an ownership uptick to go with it. Backing this stack seems to be a high-floor play as we know the Braves are coming into tonight angry and have all the pieces to make a resounding comeback statement against an aging pitcher.