UFC Vegas 59: Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill Betting Guide
A top ten light heavyweight fight headlines UFC Vegas 59 as Thiago Santos takes on Jamahal Hill.
Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill Details
LHW – #6 Thiago Santos (22-10-0) vs. LHW – #10 Jamahal Hill (10-1-0, 1 NC)
Date: Saturday, August 6, 2022 | Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill Odds
Odds to Win: Santos +240 | Hill -305
How Will Fight End: KO/TKO/DQ -285 | Submission +550 | Decision +250
Will the fight go the distance? Yes +250 | No -325
Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill Analysis
Thiago Santos has been an exciting fighter since he entered the UFC. Through 32 career bouts, Santos has 16 finishes and has been finished six times, with only a third of his fights reaching a decision. Santos has UFC wins over Ronny Markes, Andy Enz, Steve Bosse, Elias Theodorou, Nate Marquardt, Jack Marshman, Gerald Meerschaert, Jack Hermansson, Anthony Smith, Kevin Holland, Eryk Anders, Jimi Manuwa, Jan Błachowicz, and Johnny Walker. However, he has lost four of his past five fights, dropping bouts to Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira, Aleksandar Rakic, and Magomed Ankalaev. Most of his UFC career was at middleweight, but Santos has been in the cage with the best at light heavyweight. Still, he hasn’t looked the same since the Jones fight.
Meanwhile, Jamahal Hill has only two blemishes on his UFC record, a TKO loss to Paul Craig (after an injury) and a no-contest against Klidson Abreu (overturned due to a positive marijuana test). Hill has UFC wins over Darko Stosic, Ovince Saint Preux, Jimmy Crute, and Johnny Walker. This fight will be Hill’s most formidable challenge, a real measuring stick for his position in the division.
Hill will have a two-inch height and three-inch reach advantage. Both fighters will enter the cage with significant knockout power. Santos picks up 68 percent of his wins by KO/TKO and averages 0.95 knockdowns per 15 minutes, compared to Hill’s 60 percent and 1.48 knockdown average. Santos will have the experience advantage with 20 more fights and an average of three minutes and 49 seconds more fight time.
The big difference is in the volume of significant strikes thrown. Hill lands 7.06 significant strikes per minute to Santos 3.77. Although he absorbs 1.34 more punches per minute, Hill is landing 3.29 more. Hill’s volume isn’t wasted energy either, landing 51 percent of his strikes. Santos lands at a similar percentage but will not be able to match the same output at 38 years old.
Neither fighter will look to take this bout to the mat regarding grappling. If there were an over/under bet for time on the mat, the under would be an easy wager.
Hill is seven years Santos’s junior, is a southpaw, has a higher volume of punches, similar power, and rangey. Santos’s power will always give him a puncher’s chance, but more factors play into Hill’s advantage. This fight could end in a decision, but there is a high likelihood of a knockout finish. Taking Hill to win by knockout, technical knockout, or disqualification seems to be the best bet.
Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill Prediction
The Picks: Hill by KO/TKO or DQ (-155)